Friday, October 3, 2008

Update to Electoral College: 10/2/08

Just finished up the 2008 Vice Presidential Debate between Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) and Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK). Very exciting stuff. I thought it was more a draw, but the polls are showing Biden a clear winner. Some examples:

"A CBS News instant poll of uncommitted voters who watched the debate also showed Biden to be the winner by a margin of 46-21 percent. About one-third thought the debate to be a draw.

But Palin's debate performance boosted her standing with these voters. Fifty-five percent said they now thought better of Palin. Fifty-three percent now think better of Biden.

Eighteen percent of the uncommitted voters say they now back Obama. Ten percent say they now support McCain. Seventy-one percent remain uncommitted." (taken from CBSNews.com)

Can't find it now, but there is also a poll out how folks think the two did compared to their expectations. Palin's was something like 84% better than expected. Sad. She had such a low hurdle to get over and she managed it.

On to the Electoral College map!



Changes.

Virginia is still Obama's, and Nevada has swung over as well. He now also holds Ohio and Florida. We are back to pre-convention numbers, with Obama holding 338 Electoral College votes compared to 185 for McCain. 15 is a toss up, as North Carolina is 48-48 even. Still pretty reassuring, considering that is big Republican country.

Swing states.

Currently 19 swing states with less than 10 percentage points between the candidates. Ten states are close swing states (less than 5 points): Virginia, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Nevada and New Hampshire for Obama; Indiana and Missouri for McCain; North Carolina being perfectly in balance, with neither currently having a leg up.

Interesting highlights.

Top 3 states for Obama: District of Columbia, Hawaii, Delware. Top 3 states for McCain: Utah, Oklahoma, Idaho.

Obama now holds 27 states compared to 23 for McCain. Heck of a lot less Republican Red this cycle, especially compared to 2004 and 2000.

Let me know what you think? Email me!

Visit the following sites:
270toWin.com, to generate maps like I do.
Electoral-Vote.com, to get your own state poll data.

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