Update to Electoral College: 10/27/08

I'm pretty sure only one other person actually read this, so I'm probably going to cut down on what I actually say in this. I'll keep doing it, but feel free to write me if you'd like to know more about my thoughts on this.



We are now even further into landslide territory. Keep in mind these numbers are a running poll of that states in question. They are not a snapshot, which only tells what it is at that specific time when the voter was asked who they would vote for if the election were held at that time. The reason why I feel a historical average, as these numbers are such, is better, is because it doesn't go up and down all willy-nilly, but is a better statistical view on the issue at hand.

In states with a less than 10 point difference between the candidate, Obama has the advantage almost 2 to 1 over McCain. That means of the states that are most likely to switch candidates, Obama is the one benefiting from their swing, meaning he would be most affected in a negative way by the swing to the other candidate.

Obama has a healthy lead in such swing states as Colorado, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Iowa. He also has an 18 point advantage over McCain in Michigan, who has pulled out of the state. This is reminiscent of Gore pulling out of Ohio 2 weeks left in the 2000 election.

McCain is bleeding money so fast he has to funnel it into states that are powerful in the Electoral College. The only way he can eke out a win is in the Electoral College. But as it currently stands, Obama leads McCain there as well, 375-157 with 6 undecided.

As we come down to the wire, this will become even closer. I plan to have updates as the Electoral College map is filled out, as called by the majour networks, on Election Day.

Something I find interesting. McCain has 5 states where he is leading Obama by 20 points or more. In contrast, Obama has 7 states where he is leading McCain by 20 or more. This doesn't count the District of Columbia, which is reliably Democratic (Obama is winning 82 to 13), or the states that are pretty close to 20 (Maryland, Massachusetts and New Jersey are his by 19, with Michigan by 18).

It is amazing to see that places like North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, North Dakota, Georgia and West Virginia are the "new" swing states.

As always, let me know what you think.