There have been tons of changes to the EC map over the last 2 1/2 months, and it's been kind of a crazy ride. So much has changed since early July. The majour highlights are as follows: Joe Biden, senator from Delaware, was chosen as Barack Obama's vice presidential nominee; Sarah Palin, governor of Alaska, was chosen as John McCain's vice presidential nominee; both parties had their conventions, the Democrats in Denver, the Republicans in St. Paul, Minnesota; we've had a few majour hurricanes, and even us up here in Ohio felt the fury of Ike - I was without power for about 48 hours, and as I write there are still a few households in Central Ohio without power.
Politically, the Democrats received a post-convention bump... then Palin was announced out of left field and the Republicans received their bump as well. Their bump lasted longer due to the energy and excitement Palin brought to the Republican campaign. That, however, has started to run out and the effects will not be long-lasting. I think the main reason for this is the so-called swing voters (middle class, Independents, Catholics, moderate Republicans, conservative Democrats, women, Latinos, etc) have quit their love affair with Sarah Palin and understand there is more than just simple, partisan rhetoric.
I think, at first, the choice of Palin as the GOP VP slot was ingenious; I also believe, in the end, it will backfire and not help in the slightest. She was meant to fire up the right-wing base, and she has done her job, but she will not help McCain move to the center, indeed will have the opposite effect of moving the campaign, and by association McCain, to the right. They are supposed to be mavericks. They are not. He used to be, but has played up his closeness with Bush and his conservative ideals, and embraced Religious Right ideologues to his detriment. She has gone back and forth on lobbying and federal earmarks so much as to cause whiplash. They claim to be change, and it worked at first, but now that folks research their actual positions and policies, rather than what they say, more and more realize they are more of the same.
Is Joe Biden more of the same? Yes, I think so for the most part, but he's the #2 spot, not the top spot. Palin kinda is a maverick and political outsider, but she IS the #2 spot and that does not influence the president. The only time this has not been the case was with Cheney influencing President Bush; there are many reasons for this. Bush is not political savvy, he is not intelligent, Cheney is a big reason he was elected in the first place, Cheney has the connections needed to survive in the political world Bush pretends to dislike.
That said here are the highlights of the current Electoral College votes! Everyone else likes to focus on national polls; those are counting Popular Votes, and as we all remember from 2000 that does not matter in the slightest. Where I get my statistics from are state-by-state polls that DO matter, because they count the Electoral College Votes.
On with the show.
Electoral College map, as of July 6, 2008:
Now for some boring analysis...
Changes.
Nothing too surprising at this point. Looking more and more like 2004 though, isn't it? Ohio and Florida is currently Republican, though that doesn't matter due to Colorado and New Mexico, both states that had gone R last time around. Also important to note is that Virginia has swung to the Democrats in this map. The combination of those facts puts Obama in the EC vote lead by 282 to 256, more than enough. Not as great a lead as before, but again Sarah Palin and the Republican post-convention bump (which was greater than the Democrats due to most folks already knew so much about Obama-Biden before their convention) has pushed it more into a race than before, when it was more of a landslide by Obama.
There were many more changes, but we're going to start fresh due to not having posted for a while.
Swing states.
There are 21 states where the difference is less than 10 percentage points. Like before, we'll consider states with differences less than 5 points to be close swing states: Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virgina - Obama. Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Indiana, New Hampshire, West Virginia - McCain.
There is also Missouri and North Carolina, which currently favour McCain by exactly 5 points.
Now these are, for the most part, more accurate "swing states." Maine has some Republican statewide representation, but has so often voted Democratic in the Presidential race; same for West Virginia. Virginia is the opposite, this time it has a lot of Democratic representation, but has voted Republican in the past. That will be an exciting state to follow.
Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania have all been considered true swing states. No surprises there. New Hampshire too, as it has swung back and forth last few cycles.
Colorado, Nevada and Indiana are newcomers to the swing state indicator. Indiana should be McCain's by so much more, but currently only by 3 points. Colorado and Nevada have also been Republican mainstays, but the race is very close in both states.
Interesting highlights.
This will be a new section for my comments. The top 3 states for Obama (highest difference) are District of Columbia, Hawaii and Rhode Island. The top 3 McCain states are Utah, Idaho and Wyoming. Neither lists are that surprising, really. Obama's home state of Illinois, a Democratic stronghold, is his by 14 points; Arizona, kind of a toss up before McCain was selected, is McCain's by 17 points.
Something else I find interesting is the number of states held by each. While this does not actually impact anything, we were so used to in the past of seeing the Democratic candidate focus and strategize purely on Electoral Votes. Intelligent, yes, but always makes the map so very, very red. Currently we have 23 states for Obama and 28 for McCain (yes counting D.C. as a state). A lot close this cycle!
As always be sure to visit the following sites:
For maps you want to make for your friends/enemies!
For all your up-to-date Electoral Vote news!
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