Tuesday, November 4, 2008

My prediction for the 2008 Presidential election



Here's my prediction!!

As you can see, I put Obama as the winner. Some important notes...

Late polls put Indiana, Montana, North Dakota and Missouri as swing states. Since my prediction cannot include undecided, toss-up or "not sure" states, I moved all of those to McCain. They are historically reliable Republican states, though way too close for comfort.

Nevada will be Obama's; not only because of the high early voter turn outs, but also because of the burgeoning younger vote and Latino population, both of which are Obama's by a significant margin. Las Vegas will be the decider in future elections for Nevada, and it is quite reliably Democratic.

Ohio will be Obama's; this one will be tough to pull off, but I think he'll do it. We have too many rural voters who are finally voting their pocketbook rather than on social issues. His populist message will pay off, especially in this economy. Also have to keep in mind, the Democrats swept the statewide elections in 2006, starting with Governor and Senator on down. This will be the new Michigan, since McCain left there weeks ago.

I gave McCain both Florida and North Carolina. Both will be close, with North Carolina closer than Florida, but Obama will not pick them up. The truly impressive situation is that North Carolina can now be considered a swing state. The important thing is to do away with Red vs. Blue, and make traditionally Republican strongholds more competitive. Difficult to do, but I think Obama is the person to do it.

Virginia will be Obama, this was an easier call than Ohio. Way too many Washington, DC workers reside in northern Virginia, and that, along with the recent statewide victories for former Governor Mark Warner, current Governor Tim Kaine and current Senator Jim Webb will make Virginia a lean Democrat state for years to come.

All others that are no longer truly swing states will fall as is. All the 2004 Bush states (except those already mentioned, plus Colorado and New Mexico) will stay with McCain, and Obama will hold all of Kerry's states, as well as picking up the new battleground states.

All in all a very exciting proposition. Let's see how we far in the end.

Up next, CNN's prediction, but after that will be a clean slate.

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