Update to Electoral College: 10/27/08

I'm pretty sure only one other person actually read this, so I'm probably going to cut down on what I actually say in this. I'll keep doing it, but feel free to write me if you'd like to know more about my thoughts on this.



We are now even further into landslide territory. Keep in mind these numbers are a running poll of that states in question. They are not a snapshot, which only tells what it is at that specific time when the voter was asked who they would vote for if the election were held at that time. The reason why I feel a historical average, as these numbers are such, is better, is because it doesn't go up and down all willy-nilly, but is a better statistical view on the issue at hand.

In states with a less than 10 point difference between the candidate, Obama has the advantage almost 2 to 1 over McCain. That means of the states that are most likely to switch candidates, Obama is the one benefiting from their swing, meaning he would be most affected in a negative way by the swing to the other candidate.

Obama has a healthy lead in such swing states as Colorado, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Iowa. He also has an 18 point advantage over McCain in Michigan, who has pulled out of the state. This is reminiscent of Gore pulling out of Ohio 2 weeks left in the 2000 election.

McCain is bleeding money so fast he has to funnel it into states that are powerful in the Electoral College. The only way he can eke out a win is in the Electoral College. But as it currently stands, Obama leads McCain there as well, 375-157 with 6 undecided.

As we come down to the wire, this will become even closer. I plan to have updates as the Electoral College map is filled out, as called by the majour networks, on Election Day.

Something I find interesting. McCain has 5 states where he is leading Obama by 20 points or more. In contrast, Obama has 7 states where he is leading McCain by 20 or more. This doesn't count the District of Columbia, which is reliably Democratic (Obama is winning 82 to 13), or the states that are pretty close to 20 (Maryland, Massachusetts and New Jersey are his by 19, with Michigan by 18).

It is amazing to see that places like North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, North Dakota, Georgia and West Virginia are the "new" swing states.

As always, let me know what you think.

Update to Electoral College: 10/20/08

The landslide continues.



Changes.

Missouri has swung from dead-even to barely Democratic. North Dakota swung from barely Democratic to dead-even, a net gain of +8 for Obama. West Virginia swung back to the Republicans, but North Carolina swung to the Democrats; a net gain of +10 for Obama.

All else remains the same.

Swing states.

Down to 12 states with less than 10 points between the candidates. 9 close swing states (less than 5 points): Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio are all slightly for Obama; Indiana, Montana and West Virginia slightly for McCain.

Interesting highlights.

Still have 29 states for Obama and 21 for McCain.

So far no majour October surprise. The closest is that Colin Powell has just come out for Obama. This was actually a surprise for me, and pretty unexpected. McCain says that's nice, but he's got four other Secretaries of State that have endorsed him, plus over 200 generals and whatnot. And pretty expected, right-wing nut jobs like Rush Limbaugh have said it's because he's black.

With a nice comeback Powell said, if it were because he was black, he could have endorsed him months ago. He said the tipping point was the way each of the candidates handled the economic crisis; Obama was cool, calm and steady, and McCain has come across as erratic and not knowing what to do.

Another important note: Powell had given McCain's campaign the maximum amount for contributions, $2300, months ago. He also said he doesn't care for the amount of negativity the campaign has turned to for help in the polls, and that also he's concerned about the increasingly rightward tilt of the modern Republican Party.

Update to Electoral College: 10/13/08

Wow... Talk about a slippery slope. McCain has slid majourly in lots of state polls, the ones that affect my maps. Sad thing is, some national polls have Obama ahead by 10 points or more. Not that the popular vote means much, evidenced by the 2000 election and my focus on the 270 electoral votes needed to win. But still... not as close as folks thought it'd be at this point.



Changes.

North Carolina fell back to the Republicans (not too surprising there) but McCain's only by 2 points. But Missouri is now deadlocked 48-48 like NC was on my last update.

North Dakota swung to Obama by 2 points, which is really surprising, considering who we're talking about here.

West Virginia has finally gone blue, like it should be been. Obama is up by 8 points there; the state has a lot of Democratic state office holders, but Obama is black, and myself coming from an area that is inwardly, if not also outwardly, racist, this is nice to see.

The rest of the map is unchanged, with the West Coast, Great Lakes and Northeast states Obama's.

Swing states.

Moved down to 17 states with less than 10 points between the candidates. 8 states are close swing states (less than 5 points spread) - Obama: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio and North Dakota; McCain: Indiana and North Carolina; Missouri as the dead-even state.

Interesting highlights.

Up to 29 states for Obama and down to 21 states for McCain.

I'm guessing the October surprise is just around the corner. I'm hoping it isn't terrorist related but you never know, especially considering all those terror alerts issued by Republican Tom Ridge that helped Bush maintain and increase his lead over Kerry.

Visit the following sites:
270toWin.com, to generate maps like I do.
Electoral-Vote.com, to get your own state poll data.

Update to Electoral College: 10/2/08

Just finished up the 2008 Vice Presidential Debate between Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) and Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK). Very exciting stuff. I thought it was more a draw, but the polls are showing Biden a clear winner. Some examples:

"A CBS News instant poll of uncommitted voters who watched the debate also showed Biden to be the winner by a margin of 46-21 percent. About one-third thought the debate to be a draw.

But Palin's debate performance boosted her standing with these voters. Fifty-five percent said they now thought better of Palin. Fifty-three percent now think better of Biden.

Eighteen percent of the uncommitted voters say they now back Obama. Ten percent say they now support McCain. Seventy-one percent remain uncommitted." (taken from CBSNews.com)

Can't find it now, but there is also a poll out how folks think the two did compared to their expectations. Palin's was something like 84% better than expected. Sad. She had such a low hurdle to get over and she managed it.

On to the Electoral College map!



Changes.

Virginia is still Obama's, and Nevada has swung over as well. He now also holds Ohio and Florida. We are back to pre-convention numbers, with Obama holding 338 Electoral College votes compared to 185 for McCain. 15 is a toss up, as North Carolina is 48-48 even. Still pretty reassuring, considering that is big Republican country.

Swing states.

Currently 19 swing states with less than 10 percentage points between the candidates. Ten states are close swing states (less than 5 points): Virginia, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Nevada and New Hampshire for Obama; Indiana and Missouri for McCain; North Carolina being perfectly in balance, with neither currently having a leg up.

Interesting highlights.

Top 3 states for Obama: District of Columbia, Hawaii, Delware. Top 3 states for McCain: Utah, Oklahoma, Idaho.

Obama now holds 27 states compared to 23 for McCain. Heck of a lot less Republican Red this cycle, especially compared to 2004 and 2000.

Let me know what you think? Email me!

Visit the following sites:
270toWin.com, to generate maps like I do.
Electoral-Vote.com, to get your own state poll data.