Update to Electoral College: 7/6/08

First a shout-out to my sources for all the information on the Electoral College you need to know! Go to Electoral-Vote.com for all your poll-of-polls needs, as well as analysis of the polls and what it means for November '08. Also generate your own map at 270toWin.com, and show off to your friends what you think will happen in 4 months time.

Electoral College map, as of July 6, 2008:



As you can see, Obama is still out front by quite a bit; I'm pretty sure one could call this a landslide.

Changes.

Florida has swung from even to the Republican column. Not much surprise there. It will probably go Republican in November; problem for McCain is, Obama doesn't need it.

Just check out the states that swung Democratic: Montana and Indiana. Montana I can see because it has recently elected Democrats to state-wide office. Also, Democrats are more excited everywhere for their candidate. It is also a known fact that a lot of Republicans are lukewarm for McCain.

Now, Indiana is a bit of a surprise. According to Wikipedia, Indiana has only supported the Democratic nominee for President 4 times. However, since that time 1/2 of Indiana governors have been Democrats. While Evan Bayh, the junior Senator from Indiana, is a Democrat, he is a moderate one, and endorsed Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.

I don't doubt he will do all he can to help Obama win the White House, but I didn't have all that much faith in the residents of Indiana to follow his lead. Currently, Obama is only ahead by 1, 48-47, but every little bit counts, and as we found out in 2000 and 2004, some elections can come down to very slim vote margins.

Missouri has also changed, swinging back to Republican after being Democratic on my last post.

Swing states.

The exciting part is that there are 24 states that have a difference of opinion of less than 10 points; there are 9 that have a difference of less than 5 points. The bad news for the Obama campaign is 6 of those states currently favour him.

Here is the current list of what I'll call close swing states (less than 5 points lead): Alaska, Nevada, North Carolina - McCain; Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Oregon and Pennsylvania - Obama.

The interesting ones in there are Alaska and North Carolina. Those are supposed to be very safe Republican states. The others seem about right.

Let me know what you think? And be sure to check out Electoral-Vote.com and 270toWin.com!