2008 Election Results Analysis

Finally, it's over!! Let's get right to it.

Results as of right now:



Some important notes first. Missouri still has not yet been decided, but is leaning towards McCain. The vote percentage is 50-49 McCain, and he is up by 4968 votes. Now it may not be all that important for the presidential race, considering Obama won by 364-163 (as of right now) in the Electoral College, but there are other statewide and local races that were probably on the ballot, so waiting for all the votes to be counted and certified is important for those races and issues.

You also probably noticed Nebraska is purple instead of red, blue or tan (for Undecided); I'll get to that later on.

I'll post again my guess as to what I thought the end result would be:



I think I actually did a pretty good job. I put Obama above the 300 mark, but down by (currently) 53 votes. Pleasantly surprised! The only states I got wrong were Florida, North Carolina, Indiana and (partially) Nebraska.

I was very, VERY suprised Indiana was won over. Not so much on North Carolina or Florida, but I figured it would be very close, as it was.

Indiana was won by 25,836 votes; Florida by 204,577; and North Carolina by 13,692. So Indiana and North Carolina much close, but considering there were a total of 8,083,337 votes cast in Florida and it came down to a 51-49 split that's pretty darn close as well.

On to Nebraska. Like Maine, the only other state to do so, Nebraska awards two of its Electoral College votes to the candidate who wins the most votes in the state. The individual congressional districts also each award one Electoral College vote. So with Maine having 2 US House seats, and Nebraska having 3 US House seats, even if one candidate won the majority of votes in the entire state, it is possible to pick up one or two (depending on the state in question) Electoral College vote for the other candidate.

Now Maine went entirely for Obama (58-41), awarding him at least two votes, though the last district to certify its results leans more conservative than the other district. The same is true of Nebraska. Though McCain won the state over all (57-42) the heavily Democratic district that includes Douglas County (Omaha, NE) went for Obama 51-48. Word is Republican lawmakers in Nebraska will change for future elections and base all 5 of their votes on the overall state winner. Republicans hold control of the officially non-partisan unicameral legislative body, this will most likely go through.

So in the end the country has elected its first black president. A very exciting time indeed. I can be quite honest and admit there have been more than a few times where tears of joy have crept up on me. Even after Election Day, it still kind of waved over me. I'm sure this will happen at least one more time on Inauguration Day (1/20/2009), but most likely will be more than just then.

On to what I feel is other important Election Day news!

I'll just go in order of the list of issues up for decision by CNN. You can find out more about those issues at this page. I could write plenty of blog postings about each of these issues and measures, so I will not say more about each of them, other than whether or not I would vote for or against the ballot issue.

Abortion.

Colorado did not pass a measure defining the term "person" to include "any human being from the moment of fertilization," effectively banning abortion. South Dakota also failed to ban an anti-abortion measure, which would outlaw all abortions except in the case of rape or incest, or where the birth would endanger the mother's life.

I would recommend a NO vote on both measures.

Interesting note on the South Dakota measure. The proponents of this had already admitted they wanted it to pass so it could be challenged legally by those who support a mother's choice on abortion. That way it would have gone to the US Supreme Court, where conservatives have a one justice edge over traditional liberals. Would have been interesting, for sure.

The only abortion related measure still not yet decided was in California and dealt with parental notification. If it passes it would require physicians to notify a minor's parents or legal guardians at least 48 hours before performing an abortion.

I would recommend a NO vote on this issue as well.

Affirmative Action.

Nebraska passed a measure prohibiting the state government from discriminating against or granting preferential treatment for people based on their race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin. This would effectively make illegal any and all affirmative action programs. Colorado has a similar issue that is still being decided.

I would recommend a NO vote on these issues. Had there been the inclusion of sexual orientation in the class of citizens not allowed to be discriminated against, then possibly would support it.

Drugs.

Michigan has legalized marijuana for medicinal purposes. Massachusetts has reduced the penalties for possession of less than an ounce of marijuana from criminal to civil penalties, such as fines and forfeiture of the drugs. Those less than 18 would receive drug counseling.

I would recommend a YES vote on both issues.

Marriage equality.

Arizona, California and Florida have all passed gay marriage bans. California's was the closest, but it has been determined to have passed. The result in California has the most impact, as the California Supreme Court has legalized marriage between adults of the same sex earlier this year. The vote in Florida must have been at least 60% to have passed.

I would recommend a NO vote on all three issues.

Other issues (in other states).

Figured I would put these together as they don't fit well in other categories. San Francisco is still deciding on decriminalizing prostitution. This would not legalize it, but rather would prohibit local authorities from investigating, arresting or prosecuting those who sell sex.

Washington State has passed a measure that allows terminally ill patients to request lethal medication prescribed by a physician. Said patients must be competent adults with six months or less to live. A physician would not be prosecuted for providing such medication.

I would recommend a YES vote on both issues.

Issues in the State of Ohio.

There were 5 issues sent to the voters of Ohio this election year.

Issue 1: moving the deadline for statewide issues to appear on a ballot from 90 to 125 dates before the election at which time the voters would approve or deny future issues.

Issue 2: authorized the State to issue bonds to pay for environmental revitalization and conversation.

Issue 3: protecting property rights in regards to "reasonable use" of water on or running under the property.

Issue 5: making changes to check cashing lending (pay day lenders).

Issue 6: creating a casino near Wilmington, OH.

I recommend a YES vote on Issues 1, 2, and 5.
I recommend a NO vote on Issues 3 and 6.

All passed except for Issue 6; Ohio voters have rejected issues allowing increased gambling in the state 3 times since 1990.

I will speak more to those issues in a later posting. Stay tuned!

9:45 pm Election Update

Ohio called for Obama, by all majour news outlets. No Republican has won the White House without it. Very bad news for McCain. 194 to 69 in Electoral College.

8 pm Election Update

Keep in mind the East cost, especially the New England areas, heavily favour the Democratic candidate. Maine is one of two states that splits its Electoral College vote; the winner of the state popular vote gets 2 EC votes, then each of the US House districts awards its vote according to the popular vote in the respective districts.

CNN's prediction

As you can see, they've highlighted already which states will fall to which candidate, but leave 98 Electoral College votes as currently undecided. To be honest, though, even if all went to McCain, it wouldn't matter. CNN called the election (in a predictive sense of course) for Obama a few days ago, based on polling and other analysis.

I think they're right. Obviously, my previous post shows where I think those swing states they put as undecided would end up going.

Stay tuned on the hour for any new updates! I'll also post a new note to my Facebook profile, if this is where you can came from.

Regardless of what happens, or how you will vote, be sure you do indeed go out and vote. You can't complain if you don't make a choice!

My prediction for the 2008 Presidential election

Here's my prediction!!

As you can see, I put Obama as the winner. Some important notes...

Late polls put Indiana, Montana, North Dakota and Missouri as swing states. Since my prediction cannot include undecided, toss-up or "not sure" states, I moved all of those to McCain. They are historically reliable Republican states, though way too close for comfort.

Nevada will be Obama's; not only because of the high early voter turn outs, but also because of the burgeoning younger vote and Latino population, both of which are Obama's by a significant margin. Las Vegas will be the decider in future elections for Nevada, and it is quite reliably Democratic.

Ohio will be Obama's; this one will be tough to pull off, but I think he'll do it. We have too many rural voters who are finally voting their pocketbook rather than on social issues. His populist message will pay off, especially in this economy. Also have to keep in mind, the Democrats swept the statewide elections in 2006, starting with Governor and Senator on down. This will be the new Michigan, since McCain left there weeks ago.

I gave McCain both Florida and North Carolina. Both will be close, with North Carolina closer than Florida, but Obama will not pick them up. The truly impressive situation is that North Carolina can now be considered a swing state. The important thing is to do away with Red vs. Blue, and make traditionally Republican strongholds more competitive. Difficult to do, but I think Obama is the person to do it.

Virginia will be Obama, this was an easier call than Ohio. Way too many Washington, DC workers reside in northern Virginia, and that, along with the recent statewide victories for former Governor Mark Warner, current Governor Tim Kaine and current Senator Jim Webb will make Virginia a lean Democrat state for years to come.

All others that are no longer truly swing states will fall as is. All the 2004 Bush states (except those already mentioned, plus Colorado and New Mexico) will stay with McCain, and Obama will hold all of Kerry's states, as well as picking up the new battleground states.

All in all a very exciting proposition. Let's see how we far in the end.

Up next, CNN's prediction, but after that will be a clean slate.

Update to Electoral College: 11/3/08

Last posting before Election Day!! No matter who you end up voting for, please get out and vote for your candidate(s). If you don't vote, you can't complain or be upset when things don't go your way.

Now, since we are closer to Election Day the Presidential race has tightened.



This is to be expected. We are seeing states that were pretty close, than shouldn't have been.

The problem is, McCain is not up as much as he should be in the following states: Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. Those are all states Bush won in 2004; I can understand Ohio and Florida, but North Carolina? Virginia?

Indiana and Missouri flipped back to McCain, but Indiana never should have even been in play this whole time. Indiana is only McCain's by 2 percentage points, it was Bush's by 20 points in 2004.

The states where there is a greater spread than 10 points between the candidates, favour Obama over McCain by about 2 to 1.

This won't be a blowout, like in 1996 or 1984, but it won't be at all close like in 2000 or 2004. My educated guess is it will be like 1992, where Obama will win, by large enough margins to outvote the fraud Republicans will attempt to pull on Election Day, but not enough for a full landslide. At slight odds are a narrow win by Obama. McCain cannot win. Period.

Tomorrow I will post hourly updates as the states are called for the candidates, so stay tuned for those!